近期，bat365在线平台社会学系吕鹏教授在中科院Top期刊《Chaos, Solitons & Fractals》（IF=5.944）发表《The Sandpile Model and Empire Dynamics》论文，解码历史上的帝国兴衰机制与非线性进程。长期以来，人类传统社会的帝国兴衰更替现象不断吸引着社会与跨学科研究者关注。在社科领域，“超稳定结构说”具有广泛影响力。但存在循环论证、可重复性不足等问题。此弱项，可被自然与跨学科领域的自组织临界性（Self-Organized Criticality）视角补足。基于SOC视角，吕鹏教授采用沙堆模型、元胞自动机与ABM仿真方法，反演帝国历史进程。模型近似完美地拟合了历史上的帝国兴衰进程，匹配度极高。国际审稿人高度评价，认为在理论洞察力、元胞自动机认知、智能体设置、模型简约化、参数操作化、匹配度验证等方面存在创新性与先进性（I think that the authors have done a really serious job in understanding and applying the model as well as the theory based on simplifying agents. The presented model appeals to me with its simplicity and I believe that it will do the same to other scientists. In addition, I am excited about the advanced approach to parameterization and validation of agent-based systems that older work did not recognize. For example, sorting event times before a detailed comparison is a very sensible and important step in tuning model parameters）。沙堆模型与ABM仿真，是有效的国家安全、社会安全分析工具。此外，在世界体系演化、中美世纪对抗、大国关系预测方面也具有实践意义。

参考链接：https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1cP0z3QI~FPPCp